Coming into the 2014 season, predictions for the NL Cy Young were pretty unanimous: Clayton Kershaw (I’m not going to lie, I chose him too). But since that point Kershaw has missed nearly a whole month of starts, giving the reins of Best Pitcher in the NL for the time being to none other than Jose Fernandez. Fernandez in just six starts has already accumulated 1.6 fWAR to the tune of a 45 ERA-, 40 FIP-, 12.48 K/9, and 1.82 BB/9. Well, that just seems ridiculous already. That would put him on pace for a ~9 fWAR season, one of the best pitching seasons in modern history; in the past 30 years, there have only been 14 9+ fWAR seasons from a starting pitcher.
All of them came from: Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Kevin Brown, and Zack Grienke. These are some of the best pitchers in history, and it’s possible that Jose Fernandez will be on pace to reach that level. Now you may say: there’s no way that pace can continue, April performances taper off all the time. Why is this season different? This is definitely a bold prediction, but I predict that Fernandez will actually continue on his historic pace. There are a few factors that play into this, primarily statistics that show good luck has not carried him thus far. I’ll address each category that contributes significantly to his performance
ERA-
ERA is an incredibly fickle statistic, fluctuating for various factors: ballpark, weather conditions, luck, and the like. So many things can help out a pitcher and make it appear as though he is pitching better or worse than he actually is. Fernandez is different because, firstly, his peripherals agree with his ERA. It’s not as if he has an ERA- of 45 and a FIP- of 90; if anything, FIP is saying that Jose Fernandez is actually pitching slightly better than his ERA shows. And what about the grand poo-bah of fluctuation in ERA: BABIP? Currently, Fernandez’s BABIP sits at .264, 24 points above where he was last year. If his previous mark is his true mean, then one would actually expect a lower proportion of balls to drop in for hits.
K/9 and BB/9
Fernandez is benefiting from a K% that is incredibly elite: 32.6% of all PA against him end in strikeouts. Are these strikeouts just lucky though? Let’s take a look:
- His first-pitch strike percentage has increased by 3% over last year, and he has gotten across-the-board improvements in SwStr%, Contact%, and Zone%. And why has he thrown more strikes and gotten more swings and misses? His velocity has remained relatively stable from last year, but he’s seen x and z-movement increases for his four-seam and two-seam fastballs.
- He has not benefited from a good pitch framing catcher, as Jarrod Saltalamacchia currently has -1.6 framing runs above average.
- Further, strength of schedule has not been a huge component, as he has faced the Braves twice, the Nationals, Padres, Phillies, and Rockies. None of these project to be bottom-of-the-barrel teams–at the very least .500.
HR/FB%
Fernandez has allowed a pair of home runs so far, and twelve total in his career. Is this luck all the way through? Probably not. In 2013 he had a FB% of just 33.3%, leading to a HR/FB% of 7.1%. This year that mark has increased to 36.4% yet his HR/FB% has decreased to 6.3%. That could be a fluke (possibly the parks or weather?) and might regress to whatever his true mean is, but with only about 1/3 of balls in play being fly balls, home runs will be sparse.
Nothing other than (possibly) HR/FB% shows sign of slowing down. Jose Fernandez has thrown more strikes in the zone and earlier in the count (even with a below average pitch framer), gotten more swings and misses due to more movement on his pitches, and has also in turn walked fewer batters. And even with all of this, he is still allowing a higher BABIP than his 2013 season. Some projection systems think this will regress to .290, but that seems improbable as he pitched to .264 in over 175 innings only a year ago. It appears that Jose Fernandez will probably continue on his tear of the National League. And if he does, it could be a season for the books.
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